Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar, Jumlah Uang Beredar terhadap Laju Pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto di Indonesia: Pendekatan Vector Error Correlation Model

Abstract

The stability of macroeconomic indicators plays a crucial role in maintaining the sustainability of national economic development. This study aims to analyze the dynamic influence between inflation, exchange rates, and money supply on the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Indonesia. The analysis method used is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to estimate the short-term and long-term relationships between variables. The estimation results show that in the short term, the inflation variable at lag 1 and lag 2 has a significant effect on the GDP growth rate. In the long term, only the inflation variable is proven to have a significant effect on economic growth, while other variables do not show a significant impact. The Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis shows that the response to macroeconomic shocks fluctuated in the initial period up to the 15th period, but began to stabilize in the 16th to 55th periods. Furthermore, the Variance Decomposition (VD) results confirm that although all variables contribute to changes in GDP, the dominant contributions come from the GDP growth variable itself and the inflation rate. These findings imply that inflation control policies should be a top priority for monetary authorities in order to maintain stable economic growth momentum.